Determinants of Sustainable Biking as an Alternative Mode of Transport in Ibadan, Nigerian

Abstract

Rapid urbanization in Nigeria has intensified traffic congestion, environmental degradation, and public health concerns, and economic loss, highlighting the need for sustainable mobility alternatives. Existing research focuses on psychological determinants separately from the environmental, and on the physical and infrastructural determinant within which travel behaviour occurs. Consequently, there is a need for empirical study that integrates all variables for better understanding of the impact on adoption of cycling. This study investigates the determinants of cycling behaviour in Ibadan using an integrated framework based on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the Ecological Model of Active Transportation. A convergent mixed-methods design was employed, involving questionnaire surveys administered to 150 urban commuters and semi-structured interviews conducted with 7 commuters, transport planners, and cycling advocates. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics, multiple linear regression, and binary logistic regression, while qualitative data were examined through thematic analysis. The results indicate that TPB constructs significantly predict cycling intention (R² = 0.41), with perceived behavioural control emerging as the strongest predictor (β = 0.48, p < 0.001). However, actual cycling behaviour was influenced primarily by contextual factors. Perceived infrastructure safety significantly increased the likelihood of regular cycling (OR = 4.20, p < 0.001), whereas private car ownership substantially reduced participation (OR = 0.20, p = 0.001). Qualitative findings further revealed concerns regarding inadequate cycling infrastructure, destination security, and the potential of electric bicycles to overcome physical and environmental constraints.. The study concludes that cycling adoption in Ibadan is shaped more by infrastructural, institutional, and policy conditions than by individual intentions, stressing the need for integrated transport interventions.